NFL MVP rankings: Mahomes still leads, but Darnold’s odds rising fast

If this keeps up, Sam Darnold will have comeback player of the year wrapped up before the holiday season.
Darnold, 27, is in the midst of reviving his NFL career as a starting quarterback for the undefeated Minnesota Vikings this season, so much so that he suddenly has the fastest-rising MVP odds in the league entering Week 5, according to BetMGM.
The Vikings are Darnold’s fourth team overall, and his first chance as a franchise’s opening day starter since 2021. He suddenly has the NFL’s best passer rating (118.9) among starters through four games. The oddsmaker have seen enough to adjust his trajectory in the MVP race, launching Darnold into the top five for the first time after the Vikings’ 4-0 start.
The two NFL MVP favorites remain the same as the 2024 season enters its second month, with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen now toggling back-and-forth for the best odds to be crowned the league’s best player in recent weeks. But the contenders lurking behind them continue to change.
Here’s what the 2024 NFL MVP picture looks like ahead of Week 5, with players ranked in order of current betting odds, courtesy of BetMGM:
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Odds as of Thursday, Oct. 3
Purdy’s status as an MVP contender improves as the likelihood of a quick return for 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey decreases. But Purdy is also helping his case with dependable performances. He is currently ranked second in the NFL in passing yards while San Francisco battles through injuries. Purdy was 15 of 27 for 288 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the 49ers’ 30-13 win over New England in Week 4. They host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
Considering Darnold’s odds to win NFL MVP were +20,000 as recently as August, he is certainly the most unlikely MVP contender on this list. Figuring out if it’s sustainable is a compelling story to emerge in the first month of the 2024 season. Darnold was 20 of 28 for a season-high 275 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in the Vikings’ 31-29 win over the Packers in Week 4. This week, he gets a chance at revenge in London against the New York Jets, the team that took him No. 3 overall in the 2018 NFL draft and then traded him to the Carolina Panthers three years later.
Stroud got back on track in Week 4, completing 27 of 40 passes for a season-high 345 yards and two touchdowns in the Texans’ 24-20 win over Jacksonville. Houston will take a 3-1 record into an AFC showdown against the Buffalo Bills in Week 5, and the duel between Stroud and Allen will be a focus of the game. Stroud is one of five quarterbacks to already throw for 1,000 yards this season.
The reigning NFL MVP continues to rise once more in this season’s MVP rankings after another impressive performance following the Ravens’ 0-2 start. Jackson threw for 156 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 54 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore’s 35-10 win over the Bills and their MVP contender in Allen. The Ravens are on the road at the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5.
Allen’s time as the MVP favorite proved to be short-lived. He followed up his best performance of the season in Week 3 with his worst performance of the season in Week 4, with the Bills getting blown out by the Ravens, 35-10. Allen finished 16 of 29 for 180 yards and didn’t pass or run for a touchdown for the first time since November 2021. He has another matchup with an MVP contender in Week 5 when the Ravens face Stroud and the Texans on Sunday.
Mahomes isn’t having his best season. He doesn’t currently rank among the top 10 in passing yards or passer rating. But oddsmakers still believe in his track record, and the Chiefs are still 4-0, so Mahomes is again the leader to be named NFL MVP. He did enough in Kansas City’s come-from-behind 17-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, throwing for 245 yards and one touchdown. But the Chiefs lost wide receiver Rashee Rice to an injury, unfortunately caused when Mahomes fell into Rice’s leg awkwardly. If Kansas City is going to maintain its spot atop the AFC, Mahomes might have to play like an MVP given the state of his receiving corps.